US Immigration Outlook 2026: the $100,000 H-1B Fee, the New Lottery, and the Green Card Backlog

The $100,000 H-1B proclamation

On September 19, 2025, a presidential proclamation imposed a $100,000 fee on H-1B petitions — applicable to new petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025. The fee does not apply to renewals, amendments, or change-of-status petitions for workers already in H-1B status, and it is currently set to run through September 21, 2026.

The economics are stark: for most employers, the fee exceeds a year's salary for the very junior roles H-1Bs often fill, which has pushed companies toward alternatives — L-1 intracompany transfers, O-1 extraordinary ability petitions, TN status for Canadians and Mexicans, or simply hiring outside the US. For prospective applicants, the practical effects are: far fewer new H-1B filings, much more selective employer sponsorship (senior, hard-to-fill roles), and longer odds for anyone without an existing H-1B.

Canadians should note the TN angle specifically: the $100,000 fee does not touch TN status under the USMCA, making TN relatively more attractive for Canadian professionals in 2026 — though TN covers a narrower list of occupations and offers no direct green card path.

The wage-weighted lottery

Separately, USCIS finalized the long-discussed shift from a random H-1B lottery to a wage-weighted selection system. The final rule was published December 29, 2025 and took effect February 27, 2026. Instead of one entry per registrant, employers now receive 1 to 4 entries weighted by the offered wage relative to the prevailing wage for the occupation and area.

The March 2026 registration period (March 4–19) was the first run under the new system. The effect is to tilt selection toward higher-paid positions: an entry-level offer gets a single entry while a top-quartile wage offer gets four. Combined with the $100,000 fee, the H-1B system now structurally favors senior, high-wage hires — the opposite of its historical role as an entry pathway for international graduates.

The green card backlog: 2026 in the Visa Bulletin

Employment-based green cards remain governed by the monthly Visa Bulletin, and 2026 was a volatile year:

• EB-2 India hit "unavailable" in the summer of 2026 — the annual allocation was fully exhausted before the fiscal year ended September 30. With the October 2026 bulletin (new fiscal year), availability was restored: the final action date stands at November 1, 2013, with dates-for-filing at January 15, 2015.
• EB-3 India held at a January 1, 2014 final action date (January 15, 2015 for filing).
• EB-2 China sat around September–October 2021 for final action, with dates-for-filing advancing to January 1, 2023 in the October bulletin.
• EB-3 China was at roughly December 2021–January 2022 for final action, with filing dates advancing to April 1, 2024.
• Rest of world EB-2 and EB-3, which had been current, retrogressed in the October bulletin — dates-for-filing moved to March 15, 2026 (EB-2) and August 1, 2024 (EB-3) — as the State Department managed demand against the new fiscal year's numbers.

The pattern: India faces decade-plus waits in EB-2/EB-3 (a 2026 priority date enters a queue roughly 12 years deep); China faces multi-year waits; everyone else moves but no longer glides. EB-1 remains current for most countries but went tight for India late in the fiscal year.

EB categories: the strategic picture

For employment-based applicants, the category math in 2026:

• EB-1 (extraordinary ability, multinational executives): still the fastest lane where available, but India saw pressure and brief unavailability risk at fiscal year-end.
• EB-2 (advanced degree/exceptional ability, including NIW): the NIW (National Interest Waiver) remains the notable self-petitioned option — no employer sponsor required — but NIW beneficiaries from India and China still face the same country backlogs at the final stage.
• EB-3 (skilled workers/professionals): slightly better movement than EB-2 for India in 2026, but measured in months of advancement per year against a decade of backlog.
• EB-5 (investors): the unreserved category also faced availability warnings late in FY2026.

One structural point worth understanding: unused family-based visa numbers spill over to employment-based categories, and within employment-based, unused numbers cascade EB-1 → EB-2 → EB-3. Policy shifts affecting family or diversity immigration can therefore indirectly move employment backlogs — several analysts noted this dynamic in 2026.

What this means for planning

If you are a Canadian or other non-Indian/Chinese professional eyeing the US: the H-1B door narrowed sharply in 2026 (fee + wage weighting), TN remains the Canadian workaround for eligible occupations, and green card timelines for most countries are measured in low single-digit years rather than months. If you are Indian or Chinese: EB timelines remain the binding constraint on any US plan — a decade-plus for India EB-2/EB-3 — and strategies like EB-1A or NIW change the category but not the country cap. And for everyone: the $100,000 fee's September 2026 expiry date is the single most important thing to watch — whether it lapses, extends, or becomes permanent will define H-1B economics for years.

If H-1B doesn't work out: the alternatives menu

With the H-1B narrowed, know the rest of the menu. L-1 (intracompany transfer) has no lottery and no $100,000 fee — if your employer has a foreign office and you've worked there a year, it's often the cleanest path. O-1 (extraordinary ability) is petition-based with no cap, suited to researchers, founders, and recognized experts. TN (Canadians/Mexicans) covers ~60 occupations including engineers, accountants, and computer systems analysts — fast and cheap, though without dual intent. E-2 (treaty investors) works for entrepreneurs from treaty countries putting substantial capital into a US business. And for green cards directly: EB-1A and NIW can be self-petitioned without an employer, though country backlogs still apply at the final stage. The right answer is rarely "try H-1B harder" anymore — it's matching your profile to the visa that was designed for it.